London [UK], March 22: On March 21, The Lancet published a major study predicting that the population of almost every country and territory will decline by the end of this century, while the birth boom in some developing countries will decline. Being born in rich countries will affect many fields. The world's population surpassed a record 8 billion on November 15, 2022, but that could be the peak before the population declines.
97% of places will lose population
Currently, birth rates in half of the world's countries and territories are too low to maintain population size, according to joint research by hundreds of international experts. Data shows that the global fertility rate (the average number of children born per woman) has fallen from about 5 children in 1950 to 2.2 children in 2021.
Using vast amounts of global data on births, deaths and factors that drive fertility, researchers have tried to forecast the future of the world's population. Research citing data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME - USA) shows that by 2050, the population of 155 out of 204 countries and territories will shrink. By the end of the century, that will happen in 198 countries and territories, or 97%.
Notably, the birth rate trend will remain relatively high, helping to increase population in some low-income countries, mainly in sub-Saharan Africa. Only Samoa, Somalia, Tonga, Niger, Chad and Tajikistan are forecast to have an above-replacement fertility rate of 2.1 births per woman by 2100. As a result, the world will be demographically divided. , with many socio-economic impacts.
"Most of the world faces serious economic growth challenges due to a shrinking workforce, in addition to having to care for an aging population . Meanwhile, many countries have limited resources in the lower regions. The Sahara will have to manage to support a young, fast-growing population," said Stein Emil Vollset at IHME, senior author of the study.
Pros and cons
There are many reasons why the birth rate is decreasing, but mainly because more women have access to education and careers, as well as contraceptive methods. "In some ways, falling birth rates are a success story, reflecting not only better, more accessible contraceptives but also greater opportunities for education and jobs," according to Newsweek magazine quoting Mr. Vollset.
Writing in the study, World Health Organization (WHO) experts said there could be benefits to smaller populations, such as on the environment and food security. However, countries with falling birth rates will be at a major disadvantage in terms of labor supply, social security and geopolitics.
For countries with high birth rates and population growth, changes in world population will increase the risk of poverty, food insecurity and political instability. IHME expert Natalia Bhattacharjee, co-author of the study, said that new population trends will emphasize the importance of global aid networks. Besides, she predicted there will be fierce competition for migrants to maintain economic growth. "Future trends in birth rates will radically reshape the global economy and the international balance of power, and require the reorganization of society. Once the populations of nearly every country shrinks, reliance on immigration will become necessary to maintain economic growth," she said.
In the study, WHO experts recommended caution in forecasts. They point out some limitations of the models, especially the lack of data from many developing countries.
Source: Thanh Nien Newspaper